Monday, November 9, 2009

Happy Turkey Day

This is my favorite Thanksgiving turkey that one of my kids drew, with the huge eyes and the tail feathers coming out of the lime-green head. It makes me smile. :)


A poem we are learning in kindergarten for Thanksgiving is as follows:


"If turkeys thought, they'd run away

A week before Thanksgiving day

But turkeys can't anticipate,

And so- there's turkey on my plate!"


---


"Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as the politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.


". . . [The turkey's] confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was the highest!"

. . .


"I am saying that a series of corroborative facts is not necessarily evidence! . . .If I see someone kill, then I can be practically certain he is a criminal. If I don't see him kill, I cannot be certain that he is innocent. . . We can get closer to the truth by negative instances , not by verification."


-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan


Mhmmm. Anyway. . . food for thought. :) You can think about that while you stuff your turkey.

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